Ontario's 2026 Budget – Uncertain Times Call for Big Deficits 

At 4:00 pm on Thursday, March 26, Ontario’s Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, rose in the legislative chamber at Queen’s Park to deliver his sixth budget address.  His speech, which summarized the 231-page budget document titled “A Plan to Protect Ontario” highlighted the Ford government’s past achievements and presented a fiscal blueprint for the future.  He characterized his plan as “cautious where it must be and ambitious where it should be.” Here are some of the highlights: 

Context 

  • A time of significant uncertainty 
  • Unpredictable economic threats 
  • Global conflicts, Ukraine, Middle East 
  • Increasing oil prices 
  • Renegotiation of USMCA trade agreement with the United States and Mexico 
  • Shifting trade patterns, finding new trading partners, becoming less dependent on the US market 
  • Households strained, facing affordability crisis 
  • Repositioning the province’s economy to be more competitive and resilient 

The Budget Numbers 

  • The deficit for the government’s 2025-26 fiscal year (April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026) is expected to come in at $12.3 B, lower than the originally forecast $14.6 B 
  • The budgeted deficit for the 2026-27 fiscal year is $13.8 B (larger than the $7.8 B forecast in the 2025 budget) and the deficit for 2027-28 is forecast to be $6.1 B (larger then the $200 M surplus expected in the 2025 budget).  The path to balance has been pushed out one more year to 2028-29 when there is projected to be a small surplus of $600 M 
  • The province’s net debt to GDP ratio for 2025-26 is expected to come in at 36.8% rising to 37.7% in 2026-27, increasing again to 38.5% in 2027-28, then decreasing to 38.2% in 2028-29 
  • The province’s net debt is projected to hit $485.1 billion in 2026–27, increasing to $529.3 billion by 2028–29. 
  • Health spending tops the list in the 2026-27 budget at $101.2 B followed by education at $40.8B and post-secondary education at $14B 

What’s In It for the Construction Industry? 

  • The government’s planned investments in public infrastructure held at $210B over the next 10 years including $37B in 2026-27 
  • Cutting the small business corporate income tax (CIT) rate from 3.2 per cent to 2.2 per cent effective July 1, 2026, providing $1.1 B in corporate income tax relief to more than 375,000 Ontario small businesses over the next three years   
  • Accelerating the capital cost allowance for depreciable assets in concert with changes already announced by the federal government  
  • Providing an additional $300 million over six years through the Community Sport and Recreation Infrastructure Fund, for the repair, upgrade or construction of new sport and recreation facilities across the province.  
  • Speeding up construction of new homes by working with the federal government to provide funding to eligible municipalities that take action to significantly reduce development charges.  
  • Providing a temporary rebate on the full provincial portion of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on all new homes valued at up to $1 million, subject to federal legislative enactment, helping more families realize the dream of homeownership.    
  • investing $64.2 million over three years to create up to 4,000 new training seats each year, helping apprentices access in-class training faster, while covering their $10-per-day Level 1 classroom fees. This investment is part of the $159.3 million commitment announced in the 2025 Budget to strengthen skilled trades. 

You can find the government’s budget highlights here: https://budget.ontario.ca/2026/highlights.html  

And the full text of “A Plan to Protect Ontario” herehttps://budget.ontario.ca/2026/index.html