On November 6, Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy released the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario, The 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review highlights the province’s resilient yet challenged economy, impacted by U.S. trade policies and tariffs that led to a decline in real GDP and employment in the second quarter of 2025.

The Ontario government projects a deficit of $13.5 billion in 2025–26, improving over previous estimates, and aiming for a surplus by 2027–28. The report outlines moderate GDP and employment growth forecasts through 2028, sustained investments in public services, and a commitment to fiscal flexibility through reserves and contingency funds to manage economic uncertainty.
Here’s a summary as presented on the Government of Ontario’s webpage.
Protecting Workers and Businesses from Tariffs & Economic Uncertainty
  • $5 billion Protecting Ontario Account: Supporting sectors hit by U.S. tariffs (steel, aluminum, copper, auto).
  • $20 million POWER Centres: Rapid-response employment centres for workers facing layoffs—10 centres helped ~15,000 workers this year.
  • $40 million Trade-Impacted Communities Program (TICP): Tailored support for communities affected by trade disruptions.
Infrastructure & Housing
  • Capital Plan: $201 billion over 10 years, including $33 billion in 2025–26.
  • Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program (MHIP): $1.6 billion to accelerate housing and infrastructure.
  • Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund (OMPF): $100 million increase over 2 years.
Cutting Red Tape
  • Protect Ontario by Cutting Red Tape Act, 2025: Over 50 changes to improve services and reduce costs.
  • Building a More Competitive Economy Act, 2025: Streamlining permits and approvals.
Boosting Economic Competitiveness
  • Ontario’s Tax Action Plan: Updates to personal and corporate taxes to attract investment and improve competitiveness.
  • Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC): Enhanced from 10% to 15%, expanded eligibility.
  • Buy Ontario Strategy: Leveraging $30 billion in procurement to support local businesses.
Health Care Investments
  • Primary Care Action Plan: $2.1 billion investment including:
    • $235 million for 130+ care teams.
    • $300 million for 17 new teaching clinics.
    • $250 million for 75 additional care teams.
  • Home Care & Hospital to Home (H2H): $1.1 billion over 3 years.
  • Health Infrastructure: \$56 billion over 10 years for 50+ hospital projects and 3,000 new beds.
Unlocking Internal Canadian Trade
  • Protect Ontario Through Free Trade Within Canada Act, 2025: Reducing trade barriers and improving labour mobility.
Expanding Trade Resilience
  • Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF): Increased to $150 million over 3 years to help SMEs diversify and grow.
Making Housing More Affordable
  • HST Rebate for First-Time Buyers: Full 8% provincial HST rebate on new homes up to $1 million—potential savings up to $80,000.
Strengthening Indigenous Partnerships
  • Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program (IOFP): Expanded through the $3 billion Building Ontario Fund.
Additional resources
For more information, please visit https://budget.ontario.ca/2025/fallstatement/index.html